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Arab winter - Gulf sources report US, Gulf armies on high alert pending Syria action

Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 8:57:23 AM EDT

Western intelligence sources, reports Thursday, June 28, that the Republican Guard battalion commander charged with the Syrian president’s security is keeping Bashar Assad shut away in his “Unity” palace. Assad and his family may not leave the building without the commander’s permission under an order current since the second half of last week. It is not clear to whom the commander defers in this case and who in fact actually determines whether Assad can come or go.

Asked by debkafile if an element in the Republican Guard ordered the palace placed under siege to prevent the president and his family fleeing, those Western sources replied that the situation could be described as a “partial siege” which is constantly expanding. They added, in response to another question about the Syrian ruler’s freedom of movement, that neither Assad nor members of his family are able to leave the palace to go anywhere and they are aware of the restrictions placed on their movements.

"Because of the partial siege and these restrictions," said those intelligence sources, "Assad and his wife are both in very low spirits and the atmosphere inside the palace is very bleak."
The video clips showing the Syrian president and his wife Asma happily playing badminton in the palace grounds were released this week by the regime’s propaganda arm – apparently to belie the rumors spreading in Damascus about the first family’s virtual imprisonment in their own palace.
In fact, say the sources, “"Inside the palace, Assad and his family are so mistrustful of their immediate circle that food tasters are on hand in to partake in advance of all the food and drink served them.” The tasters belong to the elite unit of Syrian military intelligence. They were brought in after at least two attempts by Syrian rebel associates to sneak poisoned food into the palace. It was discovered before causing harm or even death.

"Bashar Assad won’t even drink a glass of water unless his personal food taster first swallows at least a quarter of its contents."
It is important to note, said the Western sources, that access to the Assad palace on Mt. Qaisoun on the outskirts of Damascus is gained only through two underground roads which are fortified against aerial bombardment and invisible to spies in the sky. The two roads serve the separate entrance and exit from the palace.
All vehicles using the roads, including supply trucks, belong to Syrian intelligence services. The drivers and porters unloading the vehicles – although intelligence personnel - are all closely watched at all times, starting with detailed inspections when they arrive at the entrance to one of the roads.

The rebels’ success in planting poison in one of those closely vetted supply trucks attests to their success in penetrating some of the layers of security protecting the persons of the president and his family.

Gulf sources report US, Gulf armies on high alert pending Syria action

This military alert is reported Thursday by various Gulf sources, including the US military, pending a strike against Syria in two days. This report, according to which NATO forces are about to move to Turkey, is not confirmed by any official source. US forces in the Gulf are apparently on forward positions and high alert, as are Saudi Special Forces and National Guard. Israel too is reported in mobilization. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is said to be preparing an extraordinary parliament session to authorize Syria intervention.

The same unconfirmed sources cite Saturday as the day of the NATO attack, when in Geneva, the UN Action Group hold its first meeting to approve a transitional unity government in Damascus. The five UN Security Council powers, the EU and Arab League are represented, but not Iran or Saudi Arabia.

US and Russia back Annan’s unity government proposal for Syria

The proposal, which other powers have promised to back, will be aired at a meeting of the UN Action Group on Syria in Geneva Saturday. UN peace envoy Kofi Annan proposes a national unity government for Syria’s transition comprising present cabinet plus opposition members - but excluding those whose presence would harm the purpose of reconciliation and stability.
The Geneva parley will be attended by the five UN Security Council members, the European Union, Arab League members Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar. Significantly uninvited are Iran and Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday she has "great hope" that an upcoming Geneva meeting of world powers can be a turning point in the Syria crisis.

Hamas member killed in Syria, Assad regime suspected

A Hamas member was killed Wednesday in a suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus. The victim was Kamal Hussein Ghannaje. "A group of people entered his home in Qudsaya ... where he was liquidated," said a Hamas official who accused Mossad of being behind the assassination." However, the Syrian opposition pointed the finger at the regime's Shabiha militia. Assad hosted the Palestinian radical movement's headquarters in Damascus for years, they explained, and felt betrayed when most of its leaders turned tail instead of supporting him against the uprising against him.
Ghannaje was one of the deputies of Mahmoud Abdel Raouf Al-Mabhuh, a senior Hamas military commander found dead in a Dubai hotel room in 2010.

Iran, Saudis not invited to Syria crisis talks Saturday

The meeting in Geneva next Saturday, initiated by UN peace envoy Kofi Annan, will be attended by the five UN Security Council members, the European Union, Iraq for the Arab League, Kuwait and Qatar. Significantly uninvited are Iran and Saudi Arabia.

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:29:33 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 9:59:01 AM EDT

Saudi Forces on full mobilization after Turkish Pres tel call to King Abdulla of imminent strike on Syria. All leave canceled.مرابطة 100% من الدرجة الأولى حالة تأهب قصوى لعموم القوات المسلحه السعودية الله يستر

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:07:43 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:00:46 AM EDT

Apparently US forces in Gulf on forward positions and high alert. Targets in Syria pin pointed for strike. Israel on mobilization tooعاجل: استنفار جميع القوات الامريكية بالخليج ووضعها في حالة حرب مع دخول كاسحات الالغام الى الخليج

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:30:24 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:02:33 AM EDT

different reports say there's an unsual activity within the Saudi Military & they're getting themselves ready 4 unknown reasons

http://twitter.com/sara9daj/status/217856396425830400

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:16:24 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:04:30 AM EDT

יحالة تأهب عسكرية منذ الخامسة فجراً في السعودية ..هُناك أخبار تقول بأن ضربة سوريا خلال يومين ..قوات الناتو على وشك التحرّك الى تركيا ". Saudi King Abdullah has reportedly ordered the security forces to be on a state of high alert due to what Riyadh considers the tense situation in the Middle East. Reports say King Abdullah has issued the order over what he claims to be “foreign or terrorist attacks.” http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=325334 http://www.presstv.com/detail/2012/06/28/248337/saudi-king-orders-state-of-high-alert

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:40:23 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:14:31 AM EDT

Turkish MPs are collecting signatures for an extraordinary meeting in case Parliament authorizes Turkish gov't for Syria intervention

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:18:22 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:34:00 AM EDT

All leave canceled" & "The last time Saudi had such a military alert was the day before the US went to war with Iraq"
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:35:28 AM EDT

Allegedly leaked photo shows the cable from King Abdullah ordering Saudi forces put on standby

http://twitter.com/K_AlAlkami/status/218087962422943744/photo/1
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:37:33 AM EDT

Tonight our brothers in the Saudi Special Forces and National Guard are on heightened alert. Allah keep them safe and give them strength.: القوات الجوية السعودية في حالة تأهب على الدرجة القصوى ( الحالة رقم ١ ) وألغت اجازات منسوبيها المصدر : أحد منسوبي القوات الجوية بالسعوديةUrgent: National Guard troops and security procedure on alert since morning and join now all the forces of the Ministry of defence confirmed across Saudi Arabia/عاجل : قوات الحرس الوطني والأمن الداخي في حالة تأهب منذ الصباح وتنضم الآن جميع قوات وزارة الدفاع في عموم المملكة العربية السعودية / مؤكد

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:38:46 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:56:57 AM EDT

Two US nuclear subs patrolling Med Sea off the coast of Israel. High alert, in case Turkey decides to act.

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 28, 2012 10:59:50 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 10:59:26 AM EDT

According to a US government source privy to the Nato meeting called by Turkey on Tuesday, Ankara has requested that the alliance draw up contingency plans for a no-fly zone to protect Turkish territory in the event of further acts of Syrian aggression. Turkey invoked Article IV of the Nato charter, which calls on the alliance to “consult” together whenever one of them deems that the “territorial integrity, political independence or security” of any member is threatened, after Syrian air defence systems shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom jet that was conducting a training exercise. The Turks say that the plane dipped briefly into Syrian air space but was targeted and destroyed 13 nautical miles from the Syrian coast, in international air space. A rescue plane dispatched to search for the pilots was also apparently fired upon.

“The Turks purposefully left it vague and didn’t provide many specifics,” the source said. “But they also didn’t give [Nato] members a heads-up before the meeting that they’d be asking for this and everyone was surprised.”

All members have now taken Turkey’s request back to their capitals. The alliance is meant to reconvene in the coming days.

While not a green light for war, this request is more evidence of Turkish escalation in the wake of the F-14 incident. Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan's fiery rhetoric in parliament might still be bluster, but his foreign policy advisor, Ibrahim Kalin, took to Twitter after the Nato metting to announce that the “rules of engagement for Turkish armed forces have been changed and expanded.” Indeed, now the Turkish media is reporting that a convoy of military trucks loaded with anti-aircraft artillery, rocket launchers on transporters and military ambulances has been deployed to two positions along the Syrian border, in Şanlıurfa and Hatay, the Turkish province which currently houses over 30,000 Syrian refugees including military defectors from Assad’s army. It’s unclear as to how many troops are being mobilised, but a Turkish official has confirmed the movement of materiel.

I was in Hatay in early May when things were quiet, though Syrian rebels could easily cross back and forth across the border with the acquiescence of Turkish authorities. Syrian forces, meanwhile, had also occasionally fired into refugee camps such as Boynuyogun, which is separated from Syria's Idlib province by a mere chain-link fence (here's a photo I took from inside the camp showing how near the two territories are). A more brazen and lethal cross-border raid was waged by Syrian forces into another camp in Kilis, slightly to the east of Hatay, in early April.

By mid May, Hatay had become a clearinghouse for Gulf-purchased light weapons – AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades mostly – and ammunition that were being distributed to select “delegations” inside Syria who then doled out the stuff to rebel battalions, however unevenly.
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 28, 2012 2:22:46 PM EDT

Israel’s military deploys for al Qaeda attacks from Syria

Brig.-Gen. Tamir Hayman, commander of the 36th Division, warned that the weakening of the Syrian government and its control over the Horon province bordering on Israel poses a potential threat to Israel’s northern border after years of calm. Al Qaeda gangs from other parts of Syria may take advantage of lax government in that area for attacks on Israel. The IDF is preparing appropriate measures to withstand this potential threat.
Jonathan Cousar
- Internet Czar
- 2581 posts
June 28, 2012 6:22:42 PM EDT

Ma Ko - thank you so much for keeping us all up on this! You're really on top of this!

I always know it's an Debka article just from reading it. They're the only ones reporting what's really going on in the Middle East.

Good job!
Chris ...Just Chris
- 2953 posts
June 28, 2012 6:40:37 PM EDT

Yes indeed Ma. I ALWAYS read your posts. Don't comment often, but they are mostly pretty cut and dry. Also most of Debka articles are paid subscription which I don't have. Thanks for keeping us up to date so our healthcare distraction doesn't blind us to big world issues.
Chris ...Just Chris
- 2953 posts
June 28, 2012 6:44:25 PM EDT

Just a thought about the news in this thread. I'm glad the Turks are taking the lead in this. Let them police their own back yard. Their NATO ties may keep them "honest". Not that I was in favor of them joining NATO.
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 29, 2012 2:43:13 AM EDT

Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Thursday that an external solution to the crisis in his country “is unacceptable.”

Speaking during an interview on Iranian state television, Assad said, “A proposal which is not Syrian will not be accepted because apart from us, no one knows to solve the problem.” Addressing the escalating crisis in the relations with Turkey, Assad said, “There is a big difference between the positions of officials in Ankara compared to the positive attitude of the Turkish people towards Syria.”

Meanwhile, a senior officer in the Free Syrian Army said on Thursday night that Assad’s army has positioned about 170 tanks north of Aleppo, near the border with Turkey.
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 29, 2012 3:36:24 AM EDT

The Local Coordination Commitees in Syria: Thursday drew to a close with the fall of 139 martyrsأعلنت كتيبة دمشق عاصمة الأمويين التابعة للجيش الحر عن نجاحها بتنفيذ عملية نوعية من خلال أسر ضابطين كبيرين من الجيش والمخابرات وهما : اللواء الطيار فرج شحادة المقت قائد مقر القيادة المركزي ( أكبر رتبة يتم إلقاء القبض عليها منذ بداية الثورة ) العميد الركن منير أحمد شليبي شعبة المخابرات فرع فلسطين قسم مكافحة الإرهاب

Syrian army free introduces the above argument a few days ago about the disappearance of a very senior officer rank of Major General Syrian Air Force.
It turns out now that the general, whose job is the main military headquarters commander of the Syrian Air Force was captured rebels.
This is the most senior officer captured the rebels since the beginning of the rebellion.
It also appears with another senior officer, Brigadier General, intelligence that he was taken hostage and a job as director of intelligence - the branch Flstin - from fighting terrorists.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfkO9Jzj3k&feature=youtube_gdata_player

This post was edited by Ma Ko at June 29, 2012 3:47:16 AM EDT
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 29, 2012 4:34:43 AM EDT

The Syrian crisis was Friday, June 29, on a knife edge between a Western-Arab-Turkish military offensive in the next 48 hours and a big power accord to ward it off.

debkafile’s military sources report heavy Saudi troop movements toward the Jordanian and Iraqi borders Thursday overnight and up until Friday morning, June 29, after King Abdullah put the Saudi military on high alert for joining an anti-Assad offensive in Syria. The Saudi units are poised with tanks, missiles, special forces and anti-air batteries to enter Jordan in two heads:
One will safeguard Jordan's King Abdullah against potential Syrian or Iranian reprisals from Syria or Iraq.

The second will cut north through Jordan to enter southeastern Syriam, where a security zone will be established around the towns of Deraa, Deir al-Zour and Abu Kemal – all centers of the anti-Assad rebellion. The region is also the home terrain of the Shammar tribe, brethren of the Shammars of the Saudi Nejd province.
The Saudi units deployed on the Iraqi border are there to defend the kingdom against potential incursions by Iraqi Shiite militias crossing into the kingdom for reprisals. The Iraqi militias are well trained and armed and serve under officers of the Iranian Al-Qods Brigades, the Revolutionary Guards’ external arm.
Western Gulf sources report that Jordan too is on war alert.
Following the downing of a Turkish plane by Syria a week ago, Turkey continues to build up its Syrian border units with anti-aircraft guns, tanks and missiles towed by long convoys of trucks.

A Free Syria Army officer, Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh, reported Friday that 170 Syrian army tanks of the 17th Mechanized Division were massed near the village of Musalmieh northeast of Aleppo, 30 km from the Turkish border. He said they stood ready to attack any Turkish forces crossing into Syria.
As these war preparations advanced, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in St. Petersburg Friday for crucial talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They meet the day before the new UN-sponsored Action Group convenes in Geneva to discuss UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s latest transition proposal for Syria. He hopes for a political settlement that will ward off military intervention.
Invited to the meeting are the five veto-wielding UN Security Council members plus Turkey and Arab League envoys from Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.

Annan proposes forming a transitional national unity government in Damascus that includes the opposition and excludes unacceptable regime members.
It was widely reported Thursday that Russia had agreed to this formula, even though it entailed evicting Bashar Assad from power. However, Lavrov stepped in to correct the record, stressing in reference to the Annan proposal that Moscow would not lend its support to “any outside interference or imposition of recipes in Syria.”
This position is doubly aimed at the intensive military movements afoot around Syria.
Clinton and Lavrov are therefore expected to go at the Syrian issue hammer and tongs. The outcome of their meeting will not only determine the course of the Action Group’s discussions but, more importantly, whether the Western-Arab-Turkish alliance goes forward with its military operation against Syria.

US-Russian concurrence on a plan for Assad’s removal could avert the operation. The failure of their talks would spell a worsening of the Syrian crisis and precipitate Western-Arab military intervention, which according to military sources in the Gulf is scheduled for launch Saturday, June 30.
Chris ...Just Chris
- 2953 posts
June 29, 2012 6:42:45 AM EDT

This should remain an Arab issue with only logistics support from the west. That's the only way to insure legitimacy of the outcome in the Arab world. If we aren't careful Russia and Iran will have us fighting a proxy war. Putin can not be trusted.
Ma Ko
- 6923 posts
June 29, 2012 6:56:28 AM EDT

agree